Don’t fill out your 2023 Men’s March Madness tournament brackets before watching this!

We know you're all filling out your March Madness brackets right now and we're here to help with some first round upset picks from 538 forecast model. The single most likely upset in the entire round of 64 is in the South region, where 10th Seated Utah State has a 64% chance to knock off 7th Seated Missouri. Elsewhere on the bracket, the number 10 seed in the West, Boise State, has a 59% chance of upsetting number 7 Seated Northwestern, and in the Midwest, 9th Seated Auburn has a 58% chance against 8th Seated Iowa. But let's be honest, 9s over 8s are easy to pick out. If you really want those Cinderella victories, some good 12 over 5 picks are Drake vs Miami in the Midwest at 41% and VCU vs St. Mary's in the West is also at 41%. None of these upset specials are likely to interfere with our favorites in the whole bracket.

Houston at 22% to win the national title and Alabama at 16%, but you can win some bragging rights for yourself by correctly nailing those first round shockers.