China Looks to Show It Can Broker Russia-Ukraine Peace

Also, China seems to be trying to position itself as maybe a broker, a global statesman in this whole Ukraine war. Is there any indication here that their support for Moscow is wavering? I'm not sure that the support is wavering. We haven't seen any substantial signs of that. Throughout the war, China's tried to play this role of seemingly a neutral player in everything, but still actually backing Russia in many substantial ways, rhetorically, at the United Nations, in various other ways around the world. We haven't got the details of this new peace plan, but we do expect it in many ways to echo what Russia has wanted out of a ceasefire. We do expect there to be a call to stop arms deliveries to Ukraine. That would be something that Russia would have wanted.

I think it will be rather difficult for Beijing to convince, especially the West, that it is a neutral broker in this situation. The timing is interesting, isn't it? Because I think the skeptics will say it's very difficult to go from a zero-constraints friendship with Russia to be seen as some sort of neutral actor who can broker a peace deal. But why is Beijing doing this? Have the costs of being on one side rather than the other changed? So there was an article published by Bloomberg Opinion yesterday. I love the headline. It said, China is not fighting in Ukraine, but it is losing. And I think that's the situation Beijing finds itself in. Around the world, I think the opinion of China has been degraded by its support of Russia and this war.

I think the peace plan is an effort on Beijing's part to try and show that it is trying to do its part in the conflict. But as we said before, it continues to rhetorically, publicly support Russia. That is going to be a hurdle in terms of its relationship with the U.S., especially, but also Europe, important. And it just goes to show that there's just so many other issues beyond just this balloon that is really weighing on this relationship still, John. Well, I think President Biden's visit to Kiev this week really underlines how much of a priority Ukraine is for the United States.

When we did have that meeting between Wang Yi and Secretary Blinken, Secretary Blinken took the opportunity. Obviously, they spoke about the balloon, but also, importantly, he took the opportunity to warn again Beijing not to cross this red line of providing arms to Russia. So a lot of the relationship, a lot of the tension between the United States and China and all of that impacts around the world is based on this conflict in Ukraine. John, what are the prospects of getting back to the level of optimism that we had in that Bali meeting? Because it does feel, and I don't think, you know, Yvonne Allure's to this, is try as they might. There are myriad issues that stand in the way of Washington and Beijing being able to improve this relationship. I think it will be very difficult for the two countries to improve the relationship, especially in the short term. I think there's just too much on the table that the two sides need to go through.

We are expecting a call between President Biden and Xi. President Biden said he would call Xi Jinping to discuss and try to temper the tensions that have resulted from the balloon incident. But beyond the balloon, beyond Ukraine, we still have potentially a visit by US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to Taiwan. You'll remember when Nancy Pelosi visited, how much tension, how much of an upward that causes. So we could expect, again, more turbulence of the relationship going forward. Yeah, this 4,000 sort of word article from Xinhua, a blasting the US for military, cultural hegemony. I mean, I'm guessing you've read this whole piece, Jody, or what was the biggest takeaway from that? I will admit, I have not read it in its entirety.

But I think it is a complaint that Beijing has voiced several times in the past. Essentially China feels like it is being constrained by the United States. This containment strategy to stop China's rise economically, politically, militarily. And that is at the core of this dispute between the US and China. Essentially, what sort of China is the United States willing to live with? How powerful of a China? And would China accept that role? Would China accept that state in the world order that the US is willing to give China?.

Bloomberg