Retired colonel says Wagner leader's move may come at great cost

And we do begin this hour in Ukraine, where the mayor of Kyiv is now reporting explosions in the capital, Vitaly Kluchko, says several people have been injured in two separate districts and a two-story building has been hit by falling wreckage from a drone. Now, this comes as Ukraine accuses Russian forces of trying to exhaust the country's air defense system. Ukraine's military says Russia has been using a variety of missiles and air-launched weapons against several regions, both in the north and the south. And in the Zaporizhia region, one Ukrainian official claims Russian soldiers are dressing as civilians in an attempt to flee. Russian-installed authorities, meantime, say they're moving hundreds of residents from the front lines in anticipation of Ukrainian counter-offensive. Meantime, on those front lines in the east, top commanders say Russian forces are increasing their attacks on Bakhmut, as the Ukrainian military remains determined to keep Russia from capturing the city by Tuesday, when Moscow holds its World War II Victory Day parade. Ukraine says Russia is doing everything possible to take Bakhmut, including sending in more forces.

That includes Wagner fighters. Just days ago, the head of the Russian mercenary group had threatened to pull his men out of the fight because of a lack of ammunition. He now claims his fighters are advancing in Bakhmut as they wait for more supply. Fighting continues to be bloody and merciless in the east of the country, in particular around the city of Bakhmut, where the Ukrainians have suggested that it's possible that the Wagner group or elements supporting the Wagner group have even been using incendiary devices in that battle. This coming as the leader of the mercenary organization has backtracked on his threat to leave the city and hand over to Chechen fighters. This is very much part of an ongoing soap opera effectively led by Mr. Prygozin, who has been tweeting and making public statements since effectively the beginning of this war, highly critical of the Kremlin and particularly the Russian Ministry of Defense.

He now says that he is getting the ammunition that he needs, so he won't be pulling his troops out for the foreseeable future. But all eyes really are on where and when, or even if, the Ukrainians are going to be launching a summer offensive. There have been mass troop movements, there is a lot of talk from the Ukrainians about an offensive but no real signs yet on the ground that anything is especially imminent. Sam Kiley, CNN in Kyiv. Joining me now from Washington, retired U.S. Air Force Colonel and CNN military analyst Cedric Layton.

Good to have you weigh in on these issues. We've had quite a few days, though Wagner group leader, he made those dramatic threats to pull out of Bakhmut. Turned out it was quite a performance, right? It looks like his troops are staying put. Now does this incident give you any insight into what's going on with either the Wagner group or the Russian military? Well, Paula, I think it's kind of the battle of the tantrums, if you will. And in this particular case, Prygozin's tantrum seems to have won the day for him. In other words, he gets to get weapons and ammunition, gets a resupply line to his troops in Bakhmut that didn't appear to have that good of a resupply line. And he gets to stay in that horrible meat grinder.

So in some ways, it might be considered a victory for Prygosian, but in other ways, it's a pure victory because staying in that meat grinder, it doesn't do anybody any favors and least of all him. Yeah, but there seem, when I say that it's a performance, I'm not trying to be trite. It seemed that it was a message to someone and yet if you think all he wanted from that was ammunition, well, that would be pretty naive to think that it was clearly some kind of propaganda purpose. Absolutely. Well, there's propaganda and there's a power struggle going on, Paula. And what this basically means to me is that Prygozin, let it be known, that he has a military element that could be withdrawn and could potentially put at risk Russia's frontline. And if that frontline had collapsed, that would have been a calamity for the Russian forces.

So what Prygosian is doing is he's flexing his muscles in a way. He is in a position where he can, in essence, complain and make sure that he gets what he wants in this particular case. He is basically vying for as much power as he can possibly get. Right. And that gives us, turns our attention now to Ukraine's counter offensive. It could start as early as this week. Do you think expectations are too high at this point, especially if what Ukraine is looking for is a decisive blow to the Russian military in this war? Yeah, if you're going to mount a decisive blow in an operation like this or in a conflict like this, there's got to be an element of surprise here.

And right now, it seems to me at least, that we have telegraphed way too much. The Ukrainians have telegraphed way too much. The West has telegraphed way too much. That this offensive is going to happen. And the only thing that's missing or the specific details as to time and place, but we believe it's going to happen this week, we believe it's going to happen probably in the South. And we believe it's going to affect the approaches to Crimea. So that is a major area that shouldn't be a big surprise to the Russians.

But if the Ukrainians have learned mobility warfare, if they've learned combined arms operations, putting all the elements of the military force together in a coordinated fashion, then they could still achieve some successes, but they won't be as dramatic as they would have been had there been the element of surprise. Yeah, it's such a good point, right? We've been talking about this for months, it seems now. And I have to ask you strategically, the U.S., the allies, have they given Ukraine enough capability at this point? And has it arrived in time? Well, it's mixed. The verdict on that is definitely mixed. I think that some of the capabilities, such as the Patriot missile system, which reportedly has shot down a Kinchall hypersonic missile, that's a major plus for the Ukrainians.

However, there are only going to be two batteries, two Patriot batteries in Ukraine. They will need far more than that in order to mount an effective air defense and missile defense for their country. The other thing that, of course, is missing is the required quantity of tanks and, of course, aircraft. The Ukrainians want the F-16. They're not getting the F-16 until after all of this is done, if at all. And that, of course, will provide them with a significant lack of capability at this particular point, and that could have a significant impact on their ability to perform. Yeah, and it'll be interesting to see what the blowback is from Ukraine, if and when that happens.

Again, some pivotal months ahead for sure as the weather warms up in Ukraine. Retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton, thanks so much. Really appreciate it. Thank you, Paola.

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