China's New Money Men: the New NPC Is about to Open

China is about to undergo its biggest economic policymaker shuffle in decades, and Western investors are watching closely. The National People's Congress kicks off its annual session in Beijing on March 5th. It's there that China will set a new budget and mark the end of a long line of pro-market reformers in control of the economy. As U.S. and China tensions rise, some on Wall Street fear the new guard of Xi followers will double down on economic nationalism and heavy-handed intervention, moving the country further to the left. It may not be that black and white, though.

According to Bloomberg Economics projections, China could grow 5%, but only if Xi's new cadres push through the right mix of reforms now that COVID-zero has been lifted. They'll need to address the property crisis and offset a rapidly aging population. They'll also need to deepen investment and trade with other developed nations and allow the private sector to compete more fairly with state rivals. These fixes could raise worker productivity. But if they fail to deliver on those key areas, backtrack on market liberalization, or mishandle the property crisis, growth could slump closer to 2% a year. And that would leave the U.S.

firmly as the world's biggest economy.

Bloomberg