The War in Ukraine: One Year Later

The war in Ukraine has arguably provoked the most profound change in the world order since World War II. One in which Vladimir Putin has found himself increasingly isolated. I'm taking robust action to make sure the pain of our sanctions is targeted at Russian economy. The West responded with a show of unity, both with sanctions on Russia and with billions of dollars in aid for Ukraine. NATO allies have provided increasing amounts of weapons to Kiev, including rocket launchers, air defence systems and more recently, dozens of combat vehicles. The joint efforts have led to a renaissance for NATO, but the war has also caused an economic dilemma for the West. Over dependency on commodities from authoritarian regimes like Russia makes us vulnerable and we should not repeat that mistake when it comes to China.

The war has brought Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping closer. China has increased imports of Russian oil, but also sought support over Taiwan. Russia has also turned to Iran to defy sanctions, with a new $25 billion trade route through the Caspian Sea. Others, like India, have declined to condemn Russian aggression while benefiting from cheaper oil. Meanwhile, Turkey is playing the mediator role amid deepening economic ties with Russia. Putin stands firm because he is dominating the political scene, there is no media freedom, there is no NGOs, there is no opposition, but people feel the effects of Russia's isolation. As such, the future world order could well be defined by the length of the conflict, as well as Vladimir Putin's support abroad and at home.

Bloomberg