NBC News poll: Trump holds sizeable lead in Iowa ahead of first debate

Summary:

• Donald Trump leads the NBC News poll in Iowa with a 23-point advantage over Ron DeSantis.
• Evangelical voters are supporting Trump with a 27-point lead among them.
• 65% of Iowa Republicans do not believe Trump has committed serious crimes despite recent indictment.
• While Trump leads, other candidates like Ron DeSantis and Tim Scott are well-liked and could consolidate support.

This morning we have new NBC News polling out of Iowa on the 2024 race ahead of this week's first Republican debate. Donald Trump's challengers face an uphill battle, but there's a potential opening for some rivals. The Trump campaign confirms he's skipping Wednesday's debate. Let's discuss the numbers and implications with NBC News' national political correspondent Steve Kornacki.

Trump's Dominance in Iowa

In the latest NBC News Des Moines Register poll, Donald Trump leads with 42%, a 23-point advantage over Ron DeSantis, his nearest competitor at 19%. Other candidates trail behind, with Tim Scott at 9.

Evangelical Vote and Support

Trump's lead is supported by his popularity among evangelical voters. In the 2016 Iowa caucuses, he struggled with this group, but in the current poll, he's leading among evangelicals by 27 points over his closest rival.

Impact of Recent Indictment

Despite facing a recent indictment, 65% of Iowa Republicans do not believe Trump has committed serious crimes. The poll reflects a split: before news of the indictment, Trump led by 18 points, but after the news broke, he jumped to a 25-point advantage.

Favorability Ratings and Candidates' Dynamics

While Trump holds a significant lead, other candidates are also well-liked by Iowa Republicans. Ron DeSantis is the most favored, followed by Tim Scott. This opens up an opportunity for the liked candidates to consolidate support in the absence of Trump.

As the Iowa race progresses, the dynamics of candidate popularity and support consolidation could pose a challenge to Trump's lead. The upcoming debate might provide a chance for other candidates like DeSantis, Scott, or Haley to shine and potentially narrow the gap.