There's no 'obligation' for the U.S. to defend Taiwan if China invades: Research institute

So, key question. You know, you raised it right up off the bat, and that is whether the U.S. will come to Taiwan's aid if there is a physical assault or invasion of Taiwan. I mean, we both know about the legislation which has come down so far, and it's been pretty vague, right? So, key question. You know, you raised it right up off the bat, and that is whether the U.S.

will come to Taiwan's aid if there is a physical assault or invasion of Taiwan. I mean, we both know about the legislation which has come down so far, and it's been pretty vague, right? So, heading into a new election cycle, presidential election cycle, does it change the chances of that actually happening, of the U.S. actually coming out and saying, if this does happen, we will do this? We will come to Taiwan's aid? So, heading into a new election cycle, presidential election cycle, does it change the chances of that actually happening, of the U.S. actually coming out and saying, if this does happen, we will do this? We will come to Taiwan's aid? Yeah, President Biden has said clearly that we would come, the United States would come to Taiwan's aid, and then you probably know that the White House has walked that back after he made those statements each time. And so the question is, wow, did he make mistakes three times, or does he really need it? And I have a tendency to think if someone repeats the same thing over and over again, he really means it.

Yeah, President Biden has said clearly that we would come, the United States would come to Taiwan's aid, and then you probably know that the White House has walked that back after he made those statements each time. And so the question is, wow, did he make mistakes three times, or does he really need it? And I have a tendency to think if someone repeats the same thing over and over again, he really means it. But of course, there is no legislation, there's no obligation for the United States to defend Taiwan. The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, which is U.S. law, says very clearly that the United States must help Taiwan defend itself, and therefore, we have been selling Taiwan billions of dollars of arms over the years. But of course, there is no legislation, there's no obligation for the United States to defend Taiwan.

The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, which is U.S. law, says very clearly that the United States must help Taiwan defend itself, and therefore, we have been selling Taiwan billions of dollars of arms over the years. More recently, there's talk of more of a troop presence in Taiwan, and certainly the United States is tightening up alliances further with Japan, with the Philippines now with President Marcos in power, who's much more supportive of the U.S. than his predecessor, Juterre Tehwaz. More recently, there's talk of more of a troop presence in Taiwan, and certainly the United States is tightening up alliances further with Japan, with the Philippines now with President Marcos in power, who's much more supportive of the U.

S. than his predecessor, Juterre Tehwaz. And then on South Korea, and so tightening up those alliances, hence Tingang's comment about containment, and saying that, wow, containment will not make America great, and that Taiwan is the big issue in U.S.-China relations, and that is the biggest area of stress that could lead to conflict between the United States and China. And then on South Korea, and so tightening up those alliances, hence Tingang's comment about containment, and saying that, wow, containment will not make America great, and that Taiwan is the big issue in U.S.

-China relations, and that is the biggest area of stress that could lead to conflict between the United States and China. And, indeed, folks in Taiwan, is there any sort of consensus? I mean, how imminent a threat do they feel a Chinese assault or invasion is, and within what kind of timeframe? Because depending on who you talk to, I mean, folks of the Pentagon think it's going to happen next year, but you talk to other people and go, oh, look, it's probably going to be during Xi Jinping's new and latest five-year term, because, I mean, he wants that to be part of his legacy, but, you know, it depends on who you talk to. Who knows? And, indeed, folks in Taiwan, is there any sort of consensus? I mean, how imminent a threat do they feel a Chinese assault or invasion is, and within what kind of timeframe? Because depending on who you talk to, I mean, folks of the Pentagon think it's going to happen next year, but you talk to other people and go, oh, look, it's probably going to be during Xi Jinping's new and latest five-year term, because, I mean, he wants that to be part of his legacy, but, you know, it depends on who you talk to. Who knows? Well, I think, honestly, what makes the most sense, if I were an advisor to Xi Jinping, I would say, why don't you wait and see how the presidential election pans out in Taiwan. Taiwan will have presidential elections in January of next year, so that's really not that far away. You know, the candidates, the dust is settling with the various candidates. Well, I think, honestly, what makes the most sense, if I were an advisor to Xi Jinping, I would say, why don't you wait and see how the presidential election pans out in Taiwan.

Taiwan will have presidential elections in January of next year, so that's really not that far away. You know, the candidates, the dust is settling with the various candidates. They will campaign much later in the year. Campaign season in Taiwan is much shorter, thankfully, than in the United States, but that election will be in January. And the candidate right now for DPP is very pro-Taiwan, let's say, political separation from mainland China. They will campaign much later in the year. Campaign season in Taiwan is much shorter, thankfully, than in the United States, but that election will be in January.

And the candidate right now for DPP is very pro-Taiwan, let's say, political separation from mainland China. The Nationalist Party is not for unification under current circumstances, but they are for more dialogue. And so, I think a lot depends on who is going to be leading Taiwan. And then also, the United States has a presidential election next year, so a lot is going to depend on who comes to the front of that election in the presidential election in the United States. The Nationalist Party is not for unification under current circumstances, but they are for more dialogue. And so, I think a lot depends on who is going to be leading Taiwan. And then also, the United States has a presidential election next year, so a lot is going to depend on who comes to the front of that election in the presidential election in the United States.

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